In the post-pandemic era, has the commercial real estate market come to a turning point while facing changes in corporate office demand ? （Part Two）
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延續上篇的內容，下篇將進一步討論台灣商辦市場在未來發展可能面臨的危機與應對辦法。
對商辦大樓業主來說，上述轉變是危機亦或是轉機?
For commercial building owners, does the transformation mean a potential crisis or an opportunity?
雖然目前全球疫情趨緩，員工也逐漸回到辦公室；然而，工作型態的轉變仍衝擊著辦公市場的需求，據統計目前全球仍有12%的辦公室空置率，遠超於疫情前的8% （註15），商業辦公大樓業主面臨的危機並沒有因為疫情減緩而百分之百解除。以下我們將針對位於國外與台灣的主要都市商辦大樓業主所須面臨的危機進一步探討，並提供建議可以如何將危機化為轉機。
Although the employees are gradually returning to office with the pandemic easing, the shift in work patterns has still been affecting the demand in the office market. With 12% of the offices in the world still vacant, far higher than the pre-pandemic rate of 8% (Ref 15), the crisis that the commercial building owners are facing has not been totally averted even though the pandemic is easing. In the following, we will further discuss the crisis faced by commercial building owners in major cities both overseas and in Taiwan. Also, we will provide suggestions on how to turn the potential crisis into an opportunity.
國外商辦業主面臨的危機
Crises Faced by Foreign Commercial Building Owners
疫情的趨緩並不意謂著企業對辦公室需求轉變的危機也會隨之煙消雲散，像是大量經濟活動匯聚的國際大都市紐約、倫敦，和東京的商業辦公大樓市場，依舊面臨空置率上升的危機（註15）。
The slowdown of the pandemic does not mean that the crisis of the change in needs for office spaces will dissipate, as the commercial office markets in New York, London, and Tokyo, where economic activities are highly concentrated, still encounter the rising vacancy rates (Ref 15).
根據房地產服務顧問公司2021年的資料，紐約辦公室第二季的空置率高達18.6%，遠遠高過2020年底的15.2% （註16）; 倫敦辦公室的空置率在第四季攀升到7.9% （註17）；而日本東京第四季的空置也高達約6.38%。（註18）。從上方的數據，可以明顯地看出這三座首都的商辦大樓業主正面臨比疫情前的空置率還高的挑戰。
According to the data in 2021 from real estate service consultants, New York’s office vacancy rate reached 18.6% in Q2, much higher than the 15.2% vacancy rate at the end of 2020 (Ref 16); London’s office vacancy rate rise to 7.9% in Q4 (Ref 17), while Tokyo’s vacancy rate ran up to 6.38% in Q4 (Ref 18). From the above data, it is obvious that commercial building owners in these three capital cities are facing higher vacancy rates than they were before the pandemic.
一切背後的關鍵在於後疫情時代位於科技、軟體產業等企業採用混合工作型態，進而改變原有辦公空間需求；因此，企業縮減辦公空間且不再續約或是選擇將空間轉租給其他租戶，並將辦公室需求轉向更為彈性的辦公空間，像是衛星辦公室或共享辦公空間。
The key behind such phenomenon derives from the adoption of hybrid work style by companies in technologies and software industries transforming the demand for office spaces. Therefore, companies are downsizing their office spaces, as well as not renewing their leases, or even subleasing their office spaces to other tenants. At the same time, their need for office spaces has shifted to those much more flexible, such as satellite offices or coworking spaces.
再者，老舊商辦的業主將比新穎商辦的業主面臨更大的挑戰，受疫情衝擊較輕的企業為因應混合工作型態，比以往更追求彈性、優質的辦公室。舉例來說，2021年美國的租賃活動上升，有65%的交易都是新穎辦公大樓，且其空置率在疫情爆發後逐漸低於老舊辦公大樓，如下方圖片所示（註19）。
Furthermore, owners of dated commercial buildings are encountering greater challenges than those having newer commercial buildings. In order to adopt the hybrid work mode, companies less affected by the pandemic are seeking more flexible and high-quality offices. For instance, among the U.S. rising leasing activities, 65% of transactions are from new office buildings, with its vacancy rates lower than those old ones, just as shown in the image below (Ref 19).
而倫敦也面臨相同的情況，自疫情爆發以來，有大約50%租戶釋出的空間都屬於次級商業辦公室，代表租戶正尋求品質更佳的辦公室（註20）。至於日本東京，則面臨嚴重供過於求的情況，預計2023到2025年空置率將進一步攀升。在供應過剩的情況下，特別是老舊商辦大樓的業主勢必要作出轉變來迎合後疫情時代租戶的新需求，像是依照WELL健康建築標準規劃辦公空間，並導入相關防疫設備以維護租戶健康（註21）。
London is also facing the same situation. Since the pandemic outbreak, about 50% of office spaces released by tenants have been secondary ones, indicating that tenants have been looking for better quality office spaces (Ref 20). As for Tokyo in Japan, it has been facing a severe oversupply situation, with vacancy rates expected to climb further from year 2023 to year 2025. Under the oversupply scenario, office buildings, especially for the old ones, have to make changes to meet tenants’ new demands in the post-pandemic era, such as planning office space in accordance with the WELL building standard and incorporating relevant anti-pandemic equipment to maintain tenant’s health (Ref 21).
圖片來源： Bloomberg 文章資料 （註19）
簡而言之，空置率的上升並不意味著商辦市場已走到盡頭，而是後疫情時代企業租戶對於辦公空間的需求明顯轉變所帶來的警訊。此時的商辦市場，業主已無法靠價格競爭策略來吸引租戶，而是需要調整其傳統的資產管理策略來應對危機。
In short, the rise in vacancy rates does not mean that the commercial office market has come to an end, but rather is an alert of a clear shift in tenants’ demands for office spaces during the post-pandemic era. At this moment, owners of commercial office buildings are no longer able to compete on price to attract tenants in the market; instead, they need to adjust their traditional asset management strategies to deal with such potential crises.
台灣商辦市場動態
Taiwan Commercial Office Market Outlook
相較於國外商辦市場的情況，台灣商辦不但沒有受到劇烈衝擊，反而逆勢成長。根據世邦魏理仕2021年第四季台北辦公室展望報告（註22），從下圖我們可以發現在疫情期間台北辦公室並無受疫情衝擊而導致空置率上升與租金下滑；相反地，空置率不斷探新低，而租金也穩定成長，尤其是更優質A辦更是供不應求。造成如此現況的主要原因有其中以下兩點...
Compared to the foreign office market, Taiwan’s commercial office market has not been severely affected, but rather has grown against the trend. According to 2021 Q4 CBRE’s Taipei Office Outlook Report (Ref 22), we can see from the chart below that Taipei office spaces have not been influenced by the pandemic; instead, the vacancy rates were declining to new lows and rents grew steadily, especially for Grade A offices in higher quality. The two main reasons for such a phenomenon are as follows.
1. 相較於國外，台灣經濟受疫情影響較小，使大部分產業能回復快速，進而對商務辦公室市場衝擊較小。
Compared to foreign countries, Taiwan’s economy was less affected by the pandemic, enabling most industries to recover quickly and having less impact on the commercial office market.
2. 台廠資金回流與科技業相關公司擴廠的廣大需求，但因許多老舊辦公大樓面臨都更、改建，或是新建大樓早已被預租或是自用，導致供給大幅減少；因此，在供不應求的情況下，空置率不斷下滑而租金上升。
The returning investment capital of Taiwan’s companies and the expansion of tech companies have created vast demand for office spaces. Nonetheless, the supply of office spaces has been greatly reduced, for most of the old office buildings are under urban renewal,as well as renovation, or even new office buildings have already been pre-leased or self-occupied. As a result, when the supply could not meet the demand, the vacancy rate keeps declining and the rent continues increasing.
圖片來源：世邦魏理仕 文章資料（註22）
在商辦市場狀況看好的情況下，台灣的業主是否就無須做出任何改變? 其實不然, 若業主不隨後疫情時代的趨勢轉變，可能將在2024年後面臨商辦市場供過於求的危機時，遭受嚴重衝擊。根據各家商用不動產顧問公司研究指出（註23），每年台北市的租賃平均去化量約30,000坪，但未來5年台北整體商辦的新供給高達約837,000坪，其中預估以台北市中心釋出318,955坪與南港區的400,513坪為主要的供給，而這樣的供給量市場需約相當長的時間才能完全去化。屆時，空置率會因商辦新供給湧現而上升並對租金造成壓力，而市場的主導權也將從原本的商辦業主，移轉到租戶手上，業主必須與眾多供給者互相競爭租戶。
With the positive signs of the commercial office market, do the landlords in Taiwan need to make any change? In fact, it may still be necessary. If landlords do not follow the post-pandemic trend to make changes, they might be severely impacted by the crisis of oversupply in the commercial office market after 2024. According to a study conducted by various commercial real estate consultants (Ref 23), the average amount of leasing in Taipei City is about 99,174 square meter per year; however, the overall new supply of Taipei commercial office space in the next five years will amount to 830,000 ping (2,766,000 square meters) office space, of which 318,955 ping (1,054,400,000 square meter) released from Taipei City Center and 400,513 ping (1,324,000 square meter) from Nangang District. It will take a long time for such supply to be absorbed in the market and the vacancy rate will rise due to the emergence of new office space supply and impose more pressure on rents, thus a tenant favoured market. In other words, the landlords need to compete with many other landlords for the same pool of tenants.
簡而言之，雖然台灣商業辦公室市場在疫情壟罩下仍穩健發展，但仍需面對2024年後辦公室市場供過於求的情況，以及上述所提到企業辦公室需求的轉變，包含追求更彈性的辦公空間與更重視辦公空間的防疫硬體設備，未來才能在眾多的新供給大樓中獲得租戶的青睞，滿足其對辦公場所的嚴格要求。
In brief, although the commercial office market in Taiwan has been steadily developing despite the pandemic outbreak, it still needs to face the oversupply situation after year 2024, as well as the transformation in corporate office demand mentioned above, including the pursuit of more resilient office spaces and more emphasis on safer working environment for employees in office. By doing so, the landlords need to catch up with the tenants’ ever growing requirements for office spaces and become their best choice in spite of the large supply of new buildings.
商辦業主如何應對危機?
How Can Commercial Office Landlords React to The Crisis?
在面對上述類似的危機時，商業辦公大樓業主該如何應對呢?以下將會提供四個可行的解決方案作為參考。
When facing a similar crisis, how could commercial office landlords react? The following will provide four practicable solutions for reference.
1. 提供健康導向的辦公環境
Provide a Health-oriented Office Environment
承如上述所提及到的第二個轉變，WELL健康建築標準已成為企業租賃辦公室的重點考量之一，且透過相關的資本支出，像是擁有較好的通風與照明的大樓，能吸引到更多租戶（註24） 。
As mentioned in the second turning point, the WELL building standard has become a key consideration for companies leasing offices, and through necessary proportioned capital expenditures on getting buildings equipped with items like better ventilation and illumination are able to attract more tenants (Ref 24).
因此，業主若想提升資產價值，可依照WELL健康建築標準去規劃辦公室，並導入防疫相關硬體設備，像是智能空氣淨化設備、自動紫外線殺菌燈，以及智能溫測門禁系統（EQ Recognition；EQR），取代傳統打卡機，並發揮人臉辨識、智慧溫測、口罩偵測、門禁權限管理等多重功能（註25），徹底落實工作環境的防疫，讓企業租戶能提供員工更有安全保障的辦公場所，也降低員工群聚的感染風險，進而維持公司穩定的營運。
Therefore, if landlords want to elevate their asset value, they can plan their office spaces in accordance with the WELL building standards and introduce related anti-pandemic measures, such as intelligent air purifier, automatic UV sterilization lamps, and also the Emotion Recognition using Wireless Signals（EQR）, to replace conventional punch clock and also perform multiple functions, like face recognition, intelligent temperature detection, mask detection, as well as access control authority management (Ref 25). In this way, pandemic prevention measures in the workplace can be thoroughly implemented, allowing companies to provide a safer and more secure office environment for their employees, as well as reducing the risk of infection, to maintain company operation stable.
2. 多元化租戶策略
Diversified Tenant Strategy
在疫情壟罩下，若業主只有單一類別的租戶，或許不會受到衝擊，但也不排除可能面臨租戶不再續租等風險。因此，業主可採取多元化租戶策略來規避風險，因為並非所有的產業類別會受到疫情劇烈的影響，反而是因為疫情逆勢成長，像是科技業、保險業等。根據房地產服務顧問公司2021年第四季的數據表明，科技業仍是美國（註26）、英國（註27），與日本辦公室（註28）最主要的租賃需求動能，分別占第四季度活動總量的21%、30%以及27.6%的份額。
With the pandemic outbreak, landlords may not be affected if they have only one or two anchor tenants, but they may not want to rule out the risk of their anchor tenants exiting the lease. Therefore, landlords can adopt a diversified tenant strategy to avert the risk, as not all industry sectors will be impacted by the pandemic, but rather growing against the odds, such as the technology and insurance sectors. According to the 2021 Q4 data from real estate consulting firms, the technology sector continues to be the most significant rental demand driver of office spaces in the U.S. (Ref 26), the U.K. (Ref 27), and Japan (Ref 28), respectively accounting for 21%, 30%, and 27.6% of total leasing activities.
也就是說，業主未來可鎖定不同組合的租戶，來降低像是金融海嘯、疫情等系統性風險帶來的損失。另外，除了訂定彈性化租約條款，業主也應當依不同租戶對於辦公空間上的需求做出轉變，像是為員工數眾多的科技企業打造密度低的工作空間以因應防疫需求，才能留住舊有租戶並吸引新租戶，確保受到最小的疫情衝擊。然而，若業主不做出轉變，則可能會因招不到租戶而使資產閒置過久進而資產價值受到損失。
In other words, landlords can target tenants from different industry sectors in the future to reduce systematic risks when it happens, such as the financial crisis and pandemic. In addition to setting flexible lease terms, landlords should also make changes depending on different tenants’ needs for office spaces, such as allowing tenants to to quickly turn around a low-density or partitioned workspaces for technology companies with a large number of employees to meet the needs of pandemic prevention. By doing so, landlords can retain existing tenants and attract new ones to ensure minimal impact from the pandemic. Nevertheless, if landlords do not make any change, their asset may be left idle for a long time due to a lack of tenants, resulting in a great loss of asset value.
3. 資產活化策略
Asset Revitalization Strategy
有些業主自用的辦公大樓因本業遭受疫情劇烈衝擊不堪損失，可採取更積極的資產活化策略，像是售後回租的方法。舉例來說，日本規模最大的旅行社JTB，因受疫情嚴重衝擊，截至2021年3月底已認列虧損約1052億日圓，因此於同年9月14日，透過售後回租的方式賣掉其東京的總部和大阪的一棟大樓以支撐其財務狀況（註29）。
Some self-occupied buildings, having suffered from severe losses due to the pandemic, can adopt a more aggressive asset revitalization strategy, such as the sale-leaseback method. For instance, JTB, the largest Japanese travel agency, sold its headquarters in Tokyo and a building in Osaka on September 14 in 2021 to support its financial position (Ref 29), as it had recognized a loss of approximately 105.2 billion yen by the end of March in 2021 due to the severe impact of the pandemic.
而日本愛貝克思集團也因受到疫情嚴重打擊，在2020年4到9月期間已經認列32億日圓的虧損，因此於2020年12月28日透過售後回租的方式以700億日圓賣掉東京的總部（註30）。透過這樣的方式，業主可靈活地將現有的固定資產轉變成流動率高的資金，緩解當下面臨的資金短缺窘境，並且也有足夠的資金面對商業環境的繁複變化。
The Apex Group in Japan has also sold its headquarter in Tokyo on December 28, 2020 for 70 billion yen through the sale-leaseback transaction (Ref 30), as it had been hit hard by the pandemic and had already recognized a loss of 3.2 billion yen from April to September in 2020. Through asset revitalization strategy, the landlords have the flexibility to convert existing fixed assets into liquid capital, which will alleviate their current capital shortage and provide sufficient capital to face the complex changes in the business environment.
4. 複合型大樓
Mixed-use Building
商辦業主可打造複合型商辦大樓，不僅能滿足企業對辦公室彈性需求，又可將每層空間效益最大化，進而提升資產價值。舉例來說，在疫情時間，台北101辦公大樓以及商場融入新型態複合式空間「SKY PARK」以及 AMBI Space One透過打造垂直社區，藉此深化與租戶生活的連結。因此，新租戶租金漲幅約2～3成，而其中最高價樓層租金已衝破5,000元，高於信義區平均行情甚多。由此可見，透過複合大樓的概念，商辦業主可透過結合不同空間所產生的商業效益，增加資產價值（註31）。
Commercial office landlords can create mixed-use buildings that only satisfy companies’ needs for flexible office spaces, but also maximize the space efficiency of each floor, thereby increasing the asset value. For instance, during the pandemic, Taipei 101 office building and its shopping mall incorporated a new type of mixed-use space, SKY PARK and AMBI Space One, to deepen the connections with tenants’ daily life through creating a vertical community. Inevitably, such addition of building facility has further maintained its premium rent level and stable occupancy rate in Xinyi District. This indicates that through the concept of mixed-use building, commercial office landlords can increase the value of their assets through generating their business benefits coming from different space usuage (Ref 31).
總結與建議
Concusions and Suggestions
那麼究竟在後疫情時代，商用不動產市場面臨企業辦公需求的轉變，是危機還是轉機? 綜上所述，我們認為此次轉變亦是危機，也是轉機，而疫情的爆發加速了商用不動產市場終將面臨的局勢轉變。
In the post-pandemic era, is the commercial real estate market facing a change in corporate office demand, i.e., a crisis or an opportunity? In summary, we consider that the change is both a crisis and a chance, as the pandemic outbreak has just accelerated the change that the commercial real estate market will eventually face.
若商用不動產業主仍抱持著傳統業主「坐等收租」的心態，僅採用價格競爭策略吸引租戶，或是辦公室的空間不願隨著不同租戶需求轉變而做出相對應的策略，那麼將面臨因企業辦公室需求轉變所造成空置率上升的危機，而持有老舊商辦的業主將會受到更大的衝擊。對於這些危機當前卻不願做出轉變的業主，將會面臨吸引不到租戶或是租金收入持續下滑而付出慘痛的代價。
If commercial real estate owners continue to stick to the conventional concept of “sitting back and waiting to collect rent”, and only compete on price to attract tenants, or even unwilling to adapt their office space to meeting the changing needs of different tenants, they will eventually face the crisis of rising vacancy rates. Landlords who own older office buildings will face a greater impact. For those who are unwilling to make changes in the face of these crises, will pay a heavy price for the lack of tenants or the declining rental income.
相反地，若業主能夠轉變思維，積極地採取更加彈性的策略與措施來應對轉變，像是提供健康導向的辦公空間、多元化的租戶與資產活化策略，以及打造複合型辦公大樓，滿足後疫情時代企業辦公室的需求，那麼業主極有可能將此次需求轉變從危機化為轉機，並搭上趨勢的潮流，提高資產價值。
On the contrary, if landlords can change their mindset and proactively adopt more flexible strategies and measures to cope with the transformations, such as providing health-oriented office spaces, diversifying tenant and asset revitalization strategies, and creating mixed-use building to satisfy the needs of companies in the post-pandemic era, it is highly possible that landlords will turn this change in demand from a crisis into an opportunity to ride the trend and increase their asset value.
照片來源：People in Law 文章資料（註14）
# 不動產產品定位 # 資產價值最大化
# 諾締不動產
# CreateBestAssetValue
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