In the post-pandemic era, has the commercial real estate market come to a turning point when facing changes in corporate office demand ? （Part One）
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序言
Preface
2020年初所爆發的新冠肺炎疫情(COVID-19)，短短數個月就已造成全球社會與經濟失序，連數月的封城所造成的供應鏈停擺，衝擊各行各業，也進一步影響全球商業不動產的市場。疫情壟罩之下，企業出於防疫上考量進行辦公室總量管制，只能讓大部分的員工進行遠距辦公或是異地上班，以維持公司正常營運，而閒置的辦公空間使得商業不動產市場面臨革命性的需求轉變。然而這樣的需求轉變是否也給辦公大樓業主帶來潛在危機呢，亦或是因為這樣的需求轉變，讓他們有機會尋找更多元化的對策?
The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 has caused social and economic disruptions worldwide in just a few months. The shutdown of the supply chain caused by the city’s lockdown has impacted all industries for several months and consequently affected the global commercial real estate market. With the pandemic spreading in cities, companies started to adapt work from home policy to minimize the number of employees going into the office and prevent them from infection. Thus, most of the employees work remotely or off-site in order to maintain normal company operations. And subsequently the large amount of empty office space has led to a revolutionary transformation in office demand in the commercial real estate market. However, has such a shift in office demand become a crisis for most building landlords, or presented an opportunity for them to develop a more diversified solution instead?
後疫情辦公室需求轉變與起因
Change of Needs for Post-pandemic Office Space and Its Causes
隨著疫情趨緩與疫苗施打的普及，讓各國政府陸續解封，全球正式進入後疫情時代，經濟也逐漸復甦。然而並非所有的企業都能夠熬過疫情劇烈的衝擊，像是傳產業、旅遊飯店業、餐飲服務…等，因被迫暫時歇業或永久停業而失去絕大部分營運收入；因此，只能透過縮減辦公空間以減少營運成本支出，甚至不再續租，上述類型產業辦公室需求大幅減少。
With the pandemic easing and the rising coverage of vaccination, governments around the world have been gradually lifting the COVID-19 restrictions, and the world has now entered the post-pandemic era with the economy gradually recovering. Nevertheless, not all companies have survived from the severe impact of the pandemic, in particular some manufacturing industries as well as the hospitality industry, who were forced to go out of business temporarily or permanently, losing a substantial portion of their operating income. Consequently, those affected industries could only reduce their demand for office space or decide not to renew their leases so as to cut back their operating costs.
相反地，對於科技、軟體和保險等受疫情衝擊較輕甚至因疫情受益，成長動能充足的產業，也因為疫情的不穩定使得企業對於辦公室的需求卻早已發生「質」的變化，包括企業辦公模式改變帶來空間需求轉變，以及企業辦公環境更強調防疫硬體設備，這2大轉變說明傳統辦公場所已無法滿足企業面臨後疫情時代的嚴格要求。
On the contrary, industries such as technology, software, and insurance that are less affected or even benefited from the pandemic to have sufficient growth momentum have transformed their demand for office space due to the instability resulting from the pandemic. Such transformation puts a greater emphasis on anti-pandemic equipment in office environments and general well-being of their employees, implying that traditional office spaces are no longer able to meet the ever-strict corporate office requirements in the post-pandemic era.
轉變一：企業辦公模式帶來空間需求轉變
The First Turning Point：Office Space Demand Shifted by Corporate Operating Model
在疫情肆虐下，處在科技、軟體和保險…等產業的公司只能讓大部分員工採取居家辦公模式（Work From Home, WFH） 遠端完成業務，以維持企業正常營運。然而，隨著後疫情時代來臨，全球31個市場裡約有6成的員工希望能維持遠距辦公，但又能適時有面對面工作與合作的機會（註1，2021 Microsoft Work Trend Index） ；因此，為了兼具遠距的彈性與面對面交流的功能，越來越多企業採納混合工作型態（Hybrid Work Model），依照公司業務發展與員工的需求，靈活地調整實體與遠端辦公的比例。
With the outbreak of COVID-19, enterprises in tech, software, and insurance industry, and so forth, had to allow most of their employees to work from home so as to keep the business operation normal. With the advent of post-pandemic era, about 60% of employees surveyed from 31 markets around the world hoped that telecommuting could be maintained; nonetheless, they also hoped to have the opportunity to work face-to-face and collaborate in a timely manner (Ref 1, Microsoft Work Trend Index). Therefore, in order to combine the flexibility of telecommuting and face-to-face communication, more and more companies are adopting the Hybrid Work Model, flexibly adjusting the ratio of physical and remote work based on the company's business development and employees’ needs.
隨著混合辦公模式的實行，企業不再要求全數員工須待在特定的辦公室工作，而可以按各家公司訂定的混合辦公規範，選擇在不同地點遠距辦公。那這是否意味著企業對於辦公室的需求會因遠距辦公而減少甚多呢?
With the implementation of the hybrid work model, enterprises no longer require all employees to work in a specific office space; instead, they can choose to work remotely in different locations according to their company policies for the hybrid work model. Does this mean that the demand for office space will shrink due to telecommuting?
根據仲量聯行全球研究部於2020年指出（註2），企業辦公室雖可能縮減面積，因不再像以往需要如此多空間來容納員工，但並不是指需求的萎縮，而是需求轉向更優質且彈性的辦公空間。其中的緣由在於，接近四成五的員工認為在居家辦公無法讓他們在生活與工作間取得平衡，且在居家與其他地點辦公，像咖啡館，需承受分心以及無法與同事交流的孤獨等各項心理因素，造成生產力下降（註3）。
According to Jones Lang LaSalle Global Research in 2020 (Ref 2), while corporate offices may be shrinking in size since they no longer need as much space to accommodate employees as they once did, there is not so much a demand shrinkage while a shift to better quality and more flexible office space. The reason for this is that nearly 45% of employees feel that working from home does not allow them to strike a balance between life and work. Also, working from home and other locations, such as cafes, make them suffer from distractions and the loneliness of not being able to communicate with colleagues, resulting in lower productivity (Ref 3).
然而，以蘋果電腦為例，有一部份住所離辦公室較遠的員工反映，覺得在遠距與實體辦公模式之間來回切換，會消耗更多的時間與精神體力通勤，反而會希望透過居家辦公方式，讓他們比較能夠集中注意力做創造性與出色的工作（註4）。因此，企業的需求並非消失，而是轉向尋求更為靈活的辦公模式，來因應混合工作型態下員工辦公空間的需求。
Nonetheless, take Apple Incorporation for example, some employees who live far from the office have reported that switching back and forth between remote and physical work mode consumes more time, as well as mental and physical effort, in commuting. Instead, they would like to work from home so that they can focus more on being creative and doing excellent work (Ref 4). Therefore, companies' demand for office space is not disappearing, but rather they are seeking a more resilient work model to meet employees’ needs for the office space under the hybrid work type.
舉例來說，Google於2021年採取衛星辦公室策略（hub-and-spoke model），在不同員工住所附近設置衛星辦公室；而Amazon也於同年宣布分別在6座城市，分別是達拉斯、底特律、丹佛、紐約、鳳凰城與聖地牙哥，投入14億美元來建置衛星辦公室（註5）。如此一來，企業能滿足員工遠端辦公需求，以提高工作效率。
For instance, Google adopted a hub-and-spoke model in 2021, setting up satellite offices near the residence of employees, while Amazon announced in the same year that it would invest $1.4 billion dollars to set up satellite offices in six cities, referring to Dallas, Detroit, Denver, New York, Phoenix, and San Diego (Ref 5).In this way, enterprises can satisfy their employees’ needs to work remotely and improve efficiency.
除此之外，企業的需求也轉向具有彈性租賃方案與空間的共享辦公空間。箇中關鍵在於傳統辦公室租約平均大約5年以上，若碰上疫情，營運不理想，企業除了要負擔沉重的房租成本，前期已投入的建置成本也無法回收，特別是新創企業的風險更大。另外，企業的擴張也會礙於租約的時長，無法彈性調配。因此，共享辦公空間能幫助企業將以往一次性的辦公室資本支出，轉變為每個月的營業費用，大幅地減少營業成本的支出，增加企業金流穩定性與營運彈性（註6）。
Furthermore, corporate demand for offices is also shifting to coworking space with resilient leasing plans and space. The key to this phenomenon is that the average lease for traditional office space is about five years or more. If a pandemic breaks out, causing low operating income, enterprises will not only have to bear the cost of heavy rent, but will also be exposed to the risk of being unable to recover their initial fitout costs, especially for startups. In addition, the business expansion will also be hampered by the length of the lease and cannot be flexibly deployed. Therefore, coworking space can help enterprises transform one-time capital expenditure for offices into monthly operating expenses, significantly reducing the cost and increasing the financial stability, as well as operational flexibility (Ref 6).
較為知名的案例像是，跨國科技公司IBM於2020年向美國共享工作空間品牌－WeWork，租了位於紐約70,000平方公尺的辦公空間 （註7）。除此之外，製藥集團台灣諾華（Novartis）向JustCo，一個來自於新加坡共享工作空間品牌，租下其國泰民生建國大樓中的一整層樓，供其600名員工作使用（註8）。因此，市場對於共享辦公空間的熱切需求，以及企業在疫情期間維持公司運營的彈性需求成長，讓共享辦公空間的市值預測將在2024年達130億美元，且其數量將會高達41,975個（註9）。
A well-known example in 2020 is the leasing of 70,000 square meters in New York City by multinational technology enterprise IBM to WeWork, a U.S. coworking space brand (Ref 7). Additionally, Novartis in Taiwan leased an entire floor of Cathay Minsheng Building from JustCo, a Singapore-based shared workspace brand, for its 600 employees to work in (Ref 8). As a result, the eager demand for coworking space, and the growth in demand from companies to keep their operations resilient, has led to a market value of 13 billion U.S. dollars for coworking space by 2024, with the number of units reaching 41,975 (Ref 9).
照片來源：Ergonomic Trend 文章資料（註9）
綜上所述，在混合辦公型態下，企業辦公空間的需求已不再侷限於傳統的辦公室，而是轉向更為彈性的辦公空間，像是衛星辦公室或是共享辦公空間等，在滿足員工遠端辦公的需求同時，也讓企業對於辦公空間的資本支出多一份彈性。
In summary, under the hybrid office model, the demand for office is no longer confined to conventional spaces, but has turned to more flexible office space, such as satellite offices or coworking space, to satisfy the employees’ needs of working remotely and also to allow enterprises to have more elasticity in their capital expenditures for office space.
轉變二：企業辦公環境更強調防疫硬體設備
The Second Turning Point：Greater emphasis on anti-pandemic equipment in office environments
除了上述提及彈性的辦公空間需求，疫情的爆發讓企業比以往更重視辦公環境的防疫與健康水平，也讓WELL健康建築的標準與概念成為商辦市場的趨勢，而所謂的WELL健康建築概念就是以使用者健康為核心，滿足身心靈與多種社會需求的場所（註10）。這樣的概念之所以能夠在後疫情時代蔚為風潮，在於約9成的人認為它能滿足防疫上的需求並長期維護使用者健康（註11） 。
In addition to the demand for elastic office spaces, the pandemic outbreak has made companies put more emphasis than ever on the level of pandemic prevention and employees’ health in office environments. This phenomenon has made the WELL building standard and concept a trend in the commercial office market, and the so-called WELL building concept is a place where users’ health is the core, satisfying people’s physical, mental, and social needs (Ref 10). The reason why this concept has become popular in the post-pandemic era is that about 90% of people believe that it can meet their requirements of pandemic prevention and maintain the health of users in the long term (Ref 11).
而儘管企業採用混合辦公模式，仍有特定部門員工如研發、設備部門，必需待在辦公室工作；因此，企業為了降低群聚染疫風險，將會以WELL健康建築的標準去選擇或規劃辦公室，導入防疫相關硬體設備。舉例來說，仲量聯行以健康建築概念規劃上海浦東的辦公室（註12），配有室內空氣淨化器去監測和過濾病毒、病菌；而新加坡共享工作室品牌－JustCo也採用臉部辨識與社交距離監測等科技，來降低辦公空間的染疫風險（註13）。
Although enterprises now adopt the hybrid work model, there are still workers in specific divisions who have to stay in the office for work, such as those working in the facility or research and design division. Thus, in order to reduce the risk of infection, companies can plan their offices based on the WELL building standard and introduce equipment related to pandemic prevention. For instance, Jones Lang LaSalle’s office in Pudong, Shanghai (Ref 12), is equipped with an indoor air purifier to monitor and filter viruses and germs. While for JustCo, a Singapore brand of coworking space, utilizes technology, such as face recognition and social distancing monitor , to reduce the risk of infection in office space (Ref 13).
從上面例子可得知，在後疫情時代，企業辦公室在WELL健康建築的趨勢下，更重視防疫設備來維護員工健康，同時也讓公司業務降低疫情衝擊。
From the above examples, it is clear that corporate offices in the post-pandemic era are placing more emphasis on pandemic prevention measures to protect employees’ health so as to reduce the impact on companies' business.
未完待續
TO BE CONTINUED......
照片來源：People in Law 文章資料（註14）
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